The purpose of this pilot study was to develop a quantified method for flood risk analysis that was able to account for the complexities of flooding on the Thames estuary.  It was envisaged the model would be used for a range of different flood risk management activities, including long-term planning and prioritization decisions for asset managers responsible for the repair and replacement of defences.

The study included:

• Understanding what information is needed for flood defence managers in the Thames Estuary to do their job as well as possible;
• Reviewing different options for managing defences based on the performance of the defences; and
• Understanding how that performance might best be measured.

The main scientific outputs from Task 24 were the following:

• A state of the art flood risk analysis model with an embedded rapid two-dimensional flood spreading method, capable of attributing risk to flood defences, for use in asset management decisions, as well as long-term strategic planning.
• A method for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.

Task 24 was carried out in close collaboration with Task 18 to develop a prototype decision support system (DSS) tool for the Thames Estuary.  This also worked in collaboration with Task 14 and Task 20. 

The pilot study also had close links with the Environment Agency’s TE2100 and PAMS projects.  See “Relevant links to other research projects” below.

Disclaimer:
Whilst there has been interaction between the TE2100 Project and the FLOODsite Project, the information provided here presents philosophies and results of the FLOODsite Project and does not in any way represent output from the TE2100 Project.

Key words:
Thames Estuary, Decision support system tools, flood risk, rapid flood spreading model, long-term flood risk management planning