Climate change 3

Now what does the expected climate change mean for flood risk?

Predicted climate change in Europe.

Source: European Environment Agency, 2004.

Generally the IPCC expects that the sea level rise will cause coastal erosion and a higher risk of coastal flooding where coasts are relatively low. Warmer air can hold more water and therefore more potential rain. Furthermore they say that more rain, annually, is likely for the northern part of Europe and less rain for the southern part of Europe. The rain in the northern part will likely be concentrated in the winter season. Connected to that is a higher probability of drought in summer. More rain in winter will also mean higher discharges of rivers in winter.

The picture to the left is provided by the European Environment Agency in 2004 and is used in the IPCC report: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

The picture shows the expected changes due to climate change during the 21st century for different regions in Europe. In this case the regions are not countries but regions with similar physical characteristics. For each region changes in vulnerability are described in the text boxes.

Focusing on floods it states:

• Atlantic area: increased coastal flooding
• Central: increased frequency and magnitude of winter floods
• Boreal: increased coastal flooding
• Tundra: increased coastal flooding